The odds that asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth in 2032 recently spiked from a little more than 1% to 2.3% as more observations are made.

YR4 has a 2.3% chance of hitting Earth in the year 2032. But according to new estimates, it may have an even smaller chance of hitting the moon instead.

Even the smallest odds of an impact sound alarming, but scientists’ ability to calculate them is actually good news.