You don’t have to take my word for it. Let’s compare the average of pre-election polls — computed by FiveThirtyEight and ...
Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election. On Tuesday, Nov. 5 — ...
National polls indicate a tight presidential race on Election Day. How accurate are the polls, and when will we know who won?
After 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Election Day, Americans will get their first look at exit polls, which could offer early intel ...
We get it — looking at the polls is kind of our thing here at 538. But all that obsession over tiny shifts can get pretty exhausting, so today we decided to leave the horse race behind (just for ...
Just before Election Day, national polls indicate a tight presidential race. How accurate are the polls, and when will we ...
To create them, 538 collects the data from individual polls carried out both nationally and in battleground states by lots of polling companies. As part of its quality control, 538 only includes ...
Katie Marriner and Amina Brown for 538 And that's why we've been saying the race isn't necessarily going to be close just because the polls are. Trump and Harris, our model says, are both a normal ...
That's why we do things like publish ratings of pollster accuracy and transparency and make complex election forecasting ...