That's lower than the statistical bias of the polls in 2016 and 2020, which underestimated Trump by 3.2 and 4.1 points, respectively. But it's higher than the bias in the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 ...

President-elect Donald Trump has been a divisive, unpopular political figure for years, and he remains so. Even as he ...

Polls taken before Election Day did pretty well. Pollsters got close to the mark in races for president and senate, which is ...

Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new ...

And, while most pollsters had predicted a narrowing margin between Harris and Trump in the popular vote, almost all showed ...

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

The map was created before Election Day 2024 as a prediction of how women might vote.

Donald Trump outperformed expectations for his third straight presidential election, which will surely raise more questions about pollsters’ ability to gauge where elections stand. Trump pulled ...

Get details of total seats, state-by-state electoral votes, and key battleground states. Learn how the Electoral College ...

“Financial markets are generally pretty efficient, and the evidence suggests that the same is true of prediction markets,” ...

There was little movement at the top or among East Texas teams in the weekly Texas high school football poll released on ...